Wednesday, 17 June 2009

Is Hadi Awang Asking UMNO's Help in Unity Govt to be re-instated as next Terengganu MB or as next Deputy PM ?

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(Poster hung on a building in Kota Baru, Kelantan)

The Terengganu Triumvirate in PAS

(from left): PAS President, PAS Deputy President , and PAS Secretary-General

in Partnership with
UMNO/Barisan Nasional

Najib Razak
Excerpts Read here for more

Hadi Awang, Nasharuddin Mat Isa and Mustafa Ali are the President, Deputy President and Secretary-General of PAS respectively and they belong to the
Terengganu Faction.

With the support of fundamentalists and ulamas, the Terengganu faction is in firm grip of PAS.

PAS Trengganu Lost Terengganu in Two General Elections to UMNO

Politically, the Terengganu faction has NOT been performing up to the mark over the past ten years.
  1. Hadi only served as a SINGLE-TERM Terengganu MB before he was removed from office,

  2. Terengganu PAS LOST badly in the last TWO general elections.
It is indeed VERY DIFFICULT for the Hadi camp to recapture the Terengganu state administration, save for the help from some external forces ( e.g. UMNO).

Enter UMNO and PAS's Proposal for Unity Government

UMNO is now suffering a crisis as its Malay support base thins.

Among the Malays, UMNO only manages to hang on to slightly more than half. If the party can garner more Malay votes through PAS, then its crisis will be half solved.

Under the banner of Malay unity, UMNO will tighten its grip on the federal administration, and PAS will share federal and state administrations with UMNO.

Hadi Awang (then) stands good chances of being reinstated as Terengganu MB, even as Deputy Prime Minister.

On first look, it seems that the solution works perfectly well for both parties.

But, there are simply too many things we need to take into consideration and computation in politics.

PAS Kelantan and PAS-Grassroots Prefer Staying With Pakatan Rakyat

The Kelantan camp within PAS is not going to give up so easily, provided that Nik Aziz and Husham Musa are still around, even though their influences are rapidly fading.

In addition, there are still many grassroots in PAS who cannot get along with UMNO. They are leaning towards Pakatan, and will fight alongside Nik Aziz to resist the formation of any "unity government."

If Hadi insists to go his way, he will risk sending PAS into disintegration, which means the Terengganu faction will lose its dominance.

As for UMNO, it still needs to come to terms with other BN component parties, and risks losing non-Malay support.

In Reality, PAS and UMNO are Politically Mutually Exclusive

More importantly, UMNO and PAS are standing on the same tectonic plate, fighting for the same chunk of Muslim-Malay votes, contesting in the same constituencies and sharing the same Cabinet cake.

Unless UMNO is willing to relinquish part of its power and resources, including assembly seats, state administrations and ministerial posts, it will be hard to bring the duo together.

But for the time being, they are at best exchanging only eye movements. As for whether they are able to come together in the future, we have yet to see their own intentions as well as the willingness of other members of their familles to accept the marriage.

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